Consider having the ability to predict the probability of a crime happening before it happens. It's always been possible by gathering crime statistics, analyzing the data and then an ACTION PLAN to "PREVENT" crime rather than just RESPOND. This is exactly what the Santa Cruz, California Police Department's doing in an experimental computerized program of crime statistics. The program is analyzing predictable data in an effort to PREVENT or REDUCE crime. Patrol officers in specific predicted zones use the database Intelligence analysis in the cities war on crime.
This "NEW" untested technology is being developed in conjunction with Santa Cruz Crime Analyst, Zack Friend with the assistance of mathematician researchers George Mohler & Martin Short (not the comedian), Anthropologist Jeff Brantingham and Criminologist George Tita.
The cooperation of the Los Angeles Police Department provided crime reports dating back more than 7 years. The data was input into the Santa Cruz Crime Analysis computers. By dividing the city in 500' x 500' square footage graphs, the crime statistics showed the types of crimes committed, time of day, (car thefts and break-in, burglaries, drug activity, etc.) is set to predict the probability of crime activity within a specific but general time frame and within the identified zone.
The Patrol Units when not on service calls, cruse the area selected by the analysis. They've seen an increase in predictable crimes and the reduction of the number of crimes in the area. While the information and analysis is not complete, the story has not yet been told, two specific things have occurred;
1. Police Preventative Enforcement has had a positive effect on the morale and interest to the officers involved. Instead of responding and reporting crime after the fact, the analysis has allowed for officers to be at the right place at the right time. Not to say that the computer generated information changes crime patterns, it's having a favorable effect on preventive enforcement.
2. Reduction in crime incidents since Predictive Crime Analysis went into affect, finds a financial benefit for the City of Santa Cruz...better patrol coverage, fewer investigative hours, reduction in crime victim losses and budget configuration to allocate patrol coverage with direction.
Can't go wrong with this! (if it can prove that the analysis works). In comparison to the "COMSAT" program, which originated in NYPD, the data is collected based on crime reports and officer personal input...which at time could be slanted based on ideology, prejudices and even personality. The data is collected from a wider, PRECINCT by PRECINCT area. By narrowing the data area, correlating and managing the information, the evaluation of the probability of crime assists in the distribution of crime suppression programs.
The Santa Cruz predictability program is a six month project.
LET'S LOOK FORWARD TO FAVORABLE RESULTS & A CHANGE IN POLICE PLANNING AND ENFORCEMENT..
During the 1970's some NYPD Police Officers were specialists in tracking and recovering Stolen Autos and Arresting the offenders. They did this on their own time by the development of graph charts they carried, adding new stolen car reports. each night. With charts in hand, (before computers) they ranked the highest Auto Recovery Officers in NYPD. The officer left the NYPD, Incorporated and developed this program for other police departments and auto insurance companies. It became a very successful business . He returned to NYPD as an Advisor.
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